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Bitcoin Forecast – 25/11/2021

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  • Long-term sentiment: Bullish - The long-term outlook for bitcoin is excellent, with leading on-chain indicators signaling growth ahead. A supply shock is forming, driving price appreciation over the coming months. While selling of bitcoin from certain long-term holders (LTH) has been observed, the volume was low. This suggests that experienced investors continue to hold their bitcoin with the expectation of higher prices later in the cycle.
  • Mid-term sentiment: Bullish - On-chain data places us firmly in the middle of a bull market with an expectation of bullish price action over the coming weeks into the new year. Slowing network growth, renewed fear about Mt. Gox payouts scheduled for early 2022 and the potential for selling pressure arising from year-end tax events warrant caution, however.
  • Short-term sentiment: Neutral - High open interest (outstanding derivative contracts) with leverage continue to remain a short-term risk. The recent drop in price has however flushed some of the excessive leverage and the “weak” hands out of the market, building a more sustainable basis for short-term price stability. We expect a consolidation with sideways price action followed by an ascend towards all-time highs (ATH).

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